The latest on-chain data from blockchain data analytics platform CryptoQuant shows an extreme polarization in Bitcoin holder over the past 60 days: large whales holding thousands to tens of thousands of BTC have continued to accumulate significantly, while mid-level investors holding 100 to 1000 BTC have largely exited the market. This concentration of circulating Bitcoin in the hands of top holders suggests a restructuring that may reshape the medium- to long-term market trend.

1. On-chain data reveals polarized holding behavior.

Whale Wallets (holding 1000–10000 BTC): Net purchases increased by 66,700 BTC during this period, marking the strongest accumulation period since February of this year. This increase is close to the mid-June high of 68,000 BTC. Most of these purchases have been transferred to cold wallets for long-term locking, reducing the circulating supply.

Mid-level holding addresses (holding 100-1000 BTC): A net sell-off of 77,800 BTC occurred within the same 60-day cycle, representing the largest concentrated sell-off in this cycle. Mid-sized institutions and professional individual investors exited the market to take profits.

2. Differences in investment logic behind the divergence.

The divergence in operations between the two groups stems from differing cycle judgments: Whales are bullish on Bitcoin’s scarcity in the long term, accumulating at lower prices during market pullbacks; mid-level holders have shorter capital turnover cycles and are taking profits to hedge against macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties.

3. The market is officially divided, with two major expectations for the medium- to long-term trend.

Optimists believe that the continued concentration of Bitcoin in the hands of long-term large holders, coupled with gradually clearing selling pressure, could solidify a medium- to long-term bottom. A cautious viewpoint points out that the short-term selling pressure from the large-scale sell-off by mid-level holders has not yet been digested, and the market still faces downward pressure. Future market direction will depend on monitoring two key indicators: mid-level wallet holdings and exchange BTC inventory, to determine market turning points.